I strive to understand the present state of the world and explore new facets of life without prejudice or agenda. My blog follows my pursuit of this goal and my manifesto.
You'll get a weekly digest of my blog posts as well as a monthly newsletter covering my current projects.
Since 2017, two friends and me have been working to beat vegas betting on the NFL. This collection of posts chronicles our efforts and strategies—what’s worked and what hasn’t worked.
Published: Dec 19, 2019 in Beating Vegas
Our models at the time of writing are correctly predicting outcomes against the spread around 60% of the time. Overall, we're happy with this iteration of our modeling efforts. We're highly confident it's better than guessing, but it's still difficult to determine whether or not the win rate is high enough and with low enough variance to beat vegas...